"/>
Analysts remain cautious on Malaysian economy despite central bank's rosy forecast
Source: Xinhua   2018-03-29 15:41:33

KUALA LUMPUR, March 29 (Xinhua) -- Analysts remain cautious on the Malaysian economy amid global policy uncertainties, although Malaysian Central Bank is more upbeat on the country's growth this year.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) on Wednesday projected the country's economy to grow faster at 5.5 percent to 6 percent, mainly driven by sustained domestic demand. The forecast exceeds Malaysian government earlier assumption of 5 percent to 5.5 percent.

Malaysia's economy grew at 5.9 percent in 2017, driven mainly by private sector spending.

"We opine that BNM's macro projections are broadly realistic. Its projection in 2018 is envisaged on stronger global growth prospects and positive spillover to the domestic economy through increased wages and higher investment activity," said Hong Leong Investment Bank Research in its note Thursday.

The research house, however, noted that its growth projection of 5.3 percent was premised on the assumption that global growth will be more moderate as base effect eventually comes to an end.

"While we acknowledge our growth forecast may be conservative, we also feel that the upside risk of higher-than-expected global growth is partly offset by downside risk of increased financial market volatility emanating from policy uncertainties," it added.

Maybank Investment Bank Research also said in its report it maintained its 2018 real gross domestic product growth forecast of 5.3 percent.

"There are no changes to our other key forecasts for this year, except for the change in crude oil price average to 65 U.S. dollars per barrel from 60 U.S. dollars per barrel, which is supportive of our foreign exchange research forecast of further strengthening in Malaysian Ringgit against U.S. dollars," it said.

The research house estimated the Ringgit to end the year at 3.65 against the U.S. dollars, from 4.05 last year.

"With the revised official growth forecast being just marginally above the potential output growth of 5 percent to 5.5 percent, and the official inflation rate forecast trimmed to 2 percent to 3 percent from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent previously, these appear supportive of our 'one and done' view on BNM's overnight policy rate i.e. staying at 3.25 percent for the rest of the year after the 25 basis point hike in January," it said.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Research's forecast of 5.5 percent growth remained at the lower end of BNM's growth range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent.

"This reflects our believe that growth already passes its peak in the second half last year and the reason it is still riding high is because there is still no let-up in the growth momentum. This is primarily due to the extension of the tech upcycle and the higher fiscal spending run up to the upcoming 14th General Election (GE14)," it said.

However, its forecast assumed higher public expenditure activities of 1.6 percent compared to BNM's 0.6 percent, in light of stronger fiscal push ahead of the upcoming GE14.

The research house's exports growth forecast is also lower at 6.9 percent compared to BNM's 8.4 percent as it expects trade to moderate in the second half as the tech upcycle is expected to taper and the higher base of last year.

The research house also remains cautious on trade flows moving forward as it is concerned about the impact of Trump administration's tariffs on trade and the possibility of similar retaliation by other major economies.

Editor: pengying
Related News
Xinhuanet

Analysts remain cautious on Malaysian economy despite central bank's rosy forecast

Source: Xinhua 2018-03-29 15:41:33
[Editor: huaxia]

KUALA LUMPUR, March 29 (Xinhua) -- Analysts remain cautious on the Malaysian economy amid global policy uncertainties, although Malaysian Central Bank is more upbeat on the country's growth this year.

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) on Wednesday projected the country's economy to grow faster at 5.5 percent to 6 percent, mainly driven by sustained domestic demand. The forecast exceeds Malaysian government earlier assumption of 5 percent to 5.5 percent.

Malaysia's economy grew at 5.9 percent in 2017, driven mainly by private sector spending.

"We opine that BNM's macro projections are broadly realistic. Its projection in 2018 is envisaged on stronger global growth prospects and positive spillover to the domestic economy through increased wages and higher investment activity," said Hong Leong Investment Bank Research in its note Thursday.

The research house, however, noted that its growth projection of 5.3 percent was premised on the assumption that global growth will be more moderate as base effect eventually comes to an end.

"While we acknowledge our growth forecast may be conservative, we also feel that the upside risk of higher-than-expected global growth is partly offset by downside risk of increased financial market volatility emanating from policy uncertainties," it added.

Maybank Investment Bank Research also said in its report it maintained its 2018 real gross domestic product growth forecast of 5.3 percent.

"There are no changes to our other key forecasts for this year, except for the change in crude oil price average to 65 U.S. dollars per barrel from 60 U.S. dollars per barrel, which is supportive of our foreign exchange research forecast of further strengthening in Malaysian Ringgit against U.S. dollars," it said.

The research house estimated the Ringgit to end the year at 3.65 against the U.S. dollars, from 4.05 last year.

"With the revised official growth forecast being just marginally above the potential output growth of 5 percent to 5.5 percent, and the official inflation rate forecast trimmed to 2 percent to 3 percent from 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent previously, these appear supportive of our 'one and done' view on BNM's overnight policy rate i.e. staying at 3.25 percent for the rest of the year after the 25 basis point hike in January," it said.

Meanwhile, Kenanga Research's forecast of 5.5 percent growth remained at the lower end of BNM's growth range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent.

"This reflects our believe that growth already passes its peak in the second half last year and the reason it is still riding high is because there is still no let-up in the growth momentum. This is primarily due to the extension of the tech upcycle and the higher fiscal spending run up to the upcoming 14th General Election (GE14)," it said.

However, its forecast assumed higher public expenditure activities of 1.6 percent compared to BNM's 0.6 percent, in light of stronger fiscal push ahead of the upcoming GE14.

The research house's exports growth forecast is also lower at 6.9 percent compared to BNM's 8.4 percent as it expects trade to moderate in the second half as the tech upcycle is expected to taper and the higher base of last year.

The research house also remains cautious on trade flows moving forward as it is concerned about the impact of Trump administration's tariffs on trade and the possibility of similar retaliation by other major economies.

[Editor: huaxia]
010020070750000000000000011100001370745661
大小单双平台 大发app 凤凰彩票app 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 大发彩票 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ii下载入口 乐发ll 乐发v平台 乐发v官网 乐发lll 乐发lv入口 乐发iv首页 乐发ll登录 乐发lv 乐发lll安装 乐发lv 乐发登录入口 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票登录 网信彩票 彩神 彩神彩票官方网站 彩神彩票官网首页 彩神官方app下载安卓版 凤凰彩票登录 彩神v3 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 快3官网 网信彩票 快3app 网信彩票平台 百姓彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3app下载 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票 每日彩票 快3app 百姓彩票平台 幸运5分彩快3 快3彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 大发10分PK10 快3下载 网信彩票平台 网信平台官网 快3彩票官网app 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 大发彩票app下载 百姓彩票网站网址 彩神购彩平台 每日彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 彩神彩票购彩平台 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票app下载 彩神官方app下载安卓版 网信快三 一分快3 快三彩票购彩平台 凤凰彩票官方 彩神彩票 大发10分PK10 彩神v3 凤凰彩票登录 乐发lv 乐发∨Il 百姓彩票网站网址 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发lll安装 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 一分快3 百姓彩票网站网址 凤凰彩票app下载 大发10分PK10 乐发2 乐发app 凤凰彩票 大发彩票app 乐发登录入口 乐发ll登录 乐发v官网 乐发官网 大发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票购彩平台 彩神彩票 官方正规快三彩票平台 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 乐发lll 乐发ii下载入口 乐发彩票官方网站 凤凰彩票官方网站 凤凰快3 彩神彩票官网首页 1分快三平台 百姓彩票平台 凤凰彩票登录 幸运5分彩快3 彩神 乐发彩票 乐发 大发彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发lv 凤凰彩票app 乐发app 网信彩票平台 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 凤凰彩票app 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 凤凰彩票app 网信彩票平台 乐发彩票app下载 乐发lv 乐发app 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票安卓下载 大发彩票 乐发彩票app下载 网信彩票平台 乐发iv游戏平台 彩神彩票 乐发彩票中心 极速快3彩票平台 人人快三凤凰 大发彩票app 大发彩票大全 乐发彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 乐发app 酷天堂彩票平台 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票大厅 凤凰彩票app 极速快3彩票平台 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 大发彩票app 网信彩票用户 百姓快三 百姓彩票平台 乐发lv 乐发彩票app下载 彩信平台 网信彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 乐发∨Il 人人快三凤凰 凤凰彩票 凤凰快3 乐发ll官网 乐发彩票中心 正规快三送彩金平台 凤凰彩票官方 乐发ll 乐发 网信彩票 彩神彩票 彩神彩票官方网站 人人快三凤凰 乐发彩票 彩神彩票 乐发iv游戏平台 乐发彩票 大发彩票中心 凤凰彩票登录 凤凰彩票app 彩神彩票 大发彩票 乐发ll 大发彩票app 凤凰快3 凤凰彩票 彩神彩票 乐发ll 凤凰彩票 乐发lll 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 彩神彩票 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 盈彩网投资平台 大发官网 一分时时彩 乐发lv 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发app 彩神iv 大发彩票app 大小单双平台 一分pk10 乐发lv 快盈彩票 乐发官网 快彩彩票 百姓彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 网信彩票 乐发彩票中心 网信快3 乐发 彩神xl 三分快3 大发彩票 大发官网 乐发lll 快3平台 凤凰快3 乐发ll 全民彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 百姓彩票 乐发彩票 乐发彩票官方网站 大发彩票 乐发 分分快3 彩神vl 55世纪 55世纪 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 乐发lv welcome凤凰彩票 乐发ll 1分快3 彩神 彩神ll 1分快3官网 1分快3的平台 welcome凤凰彩票 三分快3 彩神x 彩神vl 凤凰彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发官网 乐发ll 乐发lll 乐发lv 大发彩票app 大发彩票 乐发 乐发彩票 乐发彩票中心 凤凰快3 乐发彩票 彩神xl 腾讯快3 大发彩票 彩神xl 大发彩票 乐发彩票 大发彩票app 快3平台 乐发 1分快3 乐发彩票 彩神x 凤凰快3 彩神xl 彩吧助手 大发彩票app 快3平台 大发排列3 彩神iv 彩神vl 乐发IV 彩神x 一分pk10 大发排列3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 一分pk10 凤凰彩票 乐发Vll 大发官网 乐发ll 大发彩票 乐发1 凤凰快3 彩神vl 乐发lx 百姓彩票 乐发VI 彩神x 乐发IV 极速快3 乐发 凤凰快3 网信快3 乐发lv 快3彩票 乐发app下载 三分快3 快三平台助手 乐发彩票ll 彩神iv 乐发lll下载 盈彩网投资平台 乐发Ⅲ 凤凰彩票大厅 乐发lv 乐发lv 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 大发彩票 大发彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 乐发ll 凤凰彩票app下载 凤凰彩票 凤凰彩票 乐发lv 彩神x 乐发 乐发ll 极速快3 乐发lv 乐发彩票中心 快3彩票 凤凰彩票大厅 彩神x 凤凰彩票app 分分快3 网信彩票 网盟彩票 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票 乐发 快彩彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 乐发彩票 快3平台 百姓彩票 大小单双平台 凤凰快3 彩神xl 一分pk10 乐发lv 三分快3 大发彩票 极速快3 乐发ll 网信彩票 乐发lv 全民彩票 凤凰彩票app下载 快盈彩票 大发彩票app 大发官网 凤凰彩票 彩神iv 大发彩票 网信快3 凤凰彩票 百姓彩票